About Turbulence Forecast

How we calculate turbulence scores and where our data comes from.

Our Data Sources

PIREPs — Pilot Reports

Pilots file turbulence reports (PIREPs) in real-time via FAA and ICAO systems. We aggregate 12+ months of historical PIREPs for each route to identify patterns — which altitude bands are roughest, which months are worst, and how turbulence intensity distributes across the flight path.

SIGMET / AIRMET

Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET) and Airman's Meteorological Information (AIRMET) bulletins from NOAA's Aviation Weather Center identify active turbulence zones. Our app displays live SIGMETs overlaid on route paths.

EDR — Eddy Dissipation Rate

Modern commercial aircraft automatically measure Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) — the standard scientific measure of atmospheric turbulence intensity. EDR values from ADS-B equipped aircraft provide objective, continuous turbulence measurements across thousands of flights per day. Our turbulence scores are calibrated against EDR thresholds: light (<0.1), moderate (0.1–0.2), severe (>0.2).

Seasonal Averages

Each route's monthly turbulence score is a 5-year rolling average of observed turbulence frequency and intensity. This captures seasonal patterns like winter jet stream strengthening on transatlantic routes and summer convective turbulence in tropical regions.

How We Calculate Turbulence Scores

Our turbulence score (1–25 scale) combines three factors:

  1. Frequency — how often turbulence is reported on this route (% of flights with PIREP reports)
  2. Intensity — average EDR value when turbulence occurs
  3. Altitude profile — whether the route crosses known turbulence zones (jet stream, mountain waves, convective regions)
1–5 Light — barely noticeable, drink service continues
6–8 Moderate — noticeable bumps, stay seated
9–12 Severe — strong jolts, service suspended
13+ Extreme — mountain/Andes routes only

About the App

The Turbulence Forecast app (iOS) provides real-time data beyond what this website offers — live PIREP feeds updated every 5 minutes, active SIGMET overlays, and AI-powered route forecasts for any flight worldwide.

Download Free on iOS

Coverage

This site covers 963+ routes across 88+ countries, including transatlantic, transpacific, US domestic, European short-haul, mountain, and South American routes. Routes are continuously updated as new PIREP and EDR data becomes available.