What was the Singapore Airlines turbulence incident?

On May 21 2024, Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 (London Heathrow to Singapore) encountered severe clear-air turbulence over the Andaman Sea at 37,000 ft. The aircraft dropped suddenly, killing 1 passenger and injuring 104 others. It remains the deadliest turbulence incident in two decades.

Will turbulence keep getting worse?

Models project severe clear-air turbulence could increase 149% by 2050–2080 under high-emission scenarios, and 59% even under low-emission scenarios.

Is Turbulence Getting Worse? Climate Data & Famous Incidents 1979

Q: Is turbulence getting worse?

Yes. Research in Nature (2023) found clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic increased 55% between 1979 and 2020, with severe CAT up 188%. Climate change is the primary driver: a warming Arctic weakens the jet stream, creating stronger wind shear at cruising altitude.

Q: Which routes have seen the biggest turbulence increase?

The North Atlantic corridor (London–New York, Frankfurt–Chicago, Paris–Los Angeles) has seen increases of 61–73%. North Pacific routes (LA–Tokyo, SF–Tokyo) are up 44%. European routes are up about 35%.

Q: How can I check turbulence before my flight?

Use turbulence-forecast.com for historical turbulence scores on 13,000+ routes. The TurboTrack app provides live PIREP data and AI forecasts updated every 15 minutes — free on iOS and Android.

The Numbers (1979–2024)

North Atlantic corridor at cruising altitude — Source: Williams & Joshi, Nature 2023

+55%

Total clear-air turbulence increase

+188%

Severe CAT increase since 1979

17.7h

Avg severe CAT per year (was 6.3h in 1979)

Clear-Air Turbulence Trend 1979–2026

Annual average CAT frequency at cruise altitude (30,000–40,000 ft) — index, 1979 = 100. Hover or tap data points for details. Dashed line = IPCC projection.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis (ECMWF), PIREP archive (NOAA), Williams et al. 2023 (Nature). Values 2024–2026 estimated from current PIREP trends.

Notable Turbulence Incidents

Real-world events that made headlines — swipe to see more

1 dead, 104 injured as Singapore Airlines flight hits severe turbulence over Andaman Sea

Flight SQ321, London→Singapore. Aircraft dropped suddenly at 37,000 ft. Deadliest turbulence incident in 20 years.

🛫

LATAM Airlines

Flight LA800

The Guardian Mar 2024

Severe turbulence

50 passengers injured as LATAM flight from Sydney to Auckland drops suddenly

Sudden loss of altitude near New Zealand. 12 hospitalised. Investigators found no prior PIREP warnings on this route.

🇩🇪

Lufthansa

Flight LH469

The Guardian Mar 2024

Severe turbulence

7 injured on Lufthansa flight from Austin to Frankfurt in severe clear-air turbulence

Austin→Frankfurt crossing. CAT encountered over Atlantic. One crew member hospitalised with serious injuries.

36 injured, 11 hospitalised on Hawaiian Airlines flight to Sydney

Honolulu→Sydney. Aircraft encountered severe convective turbulence at night. Passengers thrown into ceiling.

35 injured on Air Canada flight Vancouver to Sydney over Pacific Ocean

Clear-air turbulence over South Pacific. No warnings on weather radar. 9 hospitalised after landing in Hawaii.

📰

United Airlines

Flight UA826

New York Times Dec 1997

Extreme turbulence

Turbulence kills one and injures 102 on United Airlines Tokyo–Honolulu flight

Classic example of jet stream CAT over the North Pacific. Aircraft dove 100 ft in seconds. Triggered modern PIREP reporting standards.

Route-by-Route Turbulence Change Since 1980

Estimated increase in moderate+ turbulence days per year

London → New York LHR–JFK +73%

Frankfurt → Chicago FRA–ORD +68%

Paris → Los Angeles CDG–LAX +61%

Los Angeles → Tokyo LAX–NRT +44%

London → Frankfurt LHR–FRA +38%

London → Dubai LHR–DXB +22%

Sydney → Singapore SYD–SIN +8%

Dubai → Maldives DXB–MLE +3%

Why Is Turbulence Increasing?

The root cause is Arctic amplification — the Arctic is warming roughly 4× faster than the global average. This shrinks the temperature difference between the warm tropics and cold poles.

That temperature gradient is what powers the polar jet stream — the fast-moving river of air at 30,000–40,000 ft that commercial flights follow. A weaker gradient = a weaker, more wobbly jet stream that meanders unpredictably.

When the jet stream buckles, it creates intense wind shear zones — where fast-moving air suddenly meets slow-moving air. Wind shear is the direct physical cause of clear-air turbulence (CAT). And because CAT has no clouds, it is completely invisible to weather radar until an aircraft enters it.

IPCC Projections: Severe CAT by 2050–2080

Increase in severe clear-air turbulence days per year on North Atlantic routes

Emissions Scenario	By 2050	By 2080	Practical impact
Low (RCP 2.6) Paris Agreement goals met	+59%	+59%	~2 extra rough days/month
Medium (RCP 4.5) Current policy trajectory	+94%	+110%	~4 extra rough days/month
High (RCP 8.5) Business as usual	+149%	+149%	~6 extra rough days/month

Sources: Williams (2017), Advances in Atmospheric Sciences; IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021).

Check Turbulence on Most Affected Routes

See seasonal patterns, seat tips and live forecasts for these routes:

San Francisco → Tokyo

Light Browse all 13,000+ routes →

Frequently Asked Questions

Is turbulence getting worse?

Yes. Research published in Nature (2023) found clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic increased 55% between 1979 and 2020, with severe CAT up 188%. Climate change is the primary driver — a warming Arctic destabilises the polar jet stream, creating stronger wind shear at cruising altitude.

What happened on Singapore Airlines SQ321?

On May 21, 2024, flight SQ321 (London→Singapore) encountered extreme clear-air turbulence over the Andaman Sea at 37,000 ft. The aircraft suddenly lost altitude. 1 passenger died of suspected heart attack, 104 were injured — 30 seriously. It was the deadliest turbulence event since 2001 and put global attention on the increasing frequency of severe CAT.

Which routes have seen the biggest turbulence increase?

The North Atlantic corridor has seen the largest increases: London–New York (+73%), Frankfurt–Chicago (+68%), Paris–Los Angeles (+61%). North Pacific routes are up 44%. Tropical routes near the equator are least affected by jet stream changes, though convective turbulence is rising there too.

Can turbulence crash a plane?

No. Modern commercial aircraft are certified to withstand forces far exceeding any natural turbulence. The real danger is to unbelted passengers and crew. Keeping your seatbelt fastened whenever seated reduces injury risk to near zero.

How can I check turbulence before my flight?

Use turbulence-forecast.com — historical scores and seasonal charts for 13,000+ routes, free. The TurboTrack app adds live PIREP data, SIGMET alerts and AI forecasts updated every 15 minutes.

Check turbulence before your flight

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