Atlantic Turbulence Forecast

The North Atlantic is the busiest — and in winter, the bumpiest — ocean crossing in commercial aviation. Here's everything you need to know about turbulence on transatlantic routes.

Why is the North Atlantic so turbulent?

The North Atlantic experiences high turbulence for one primary reason: the polar jet stream. This band of high-altitude winds (the 'river in the sky') flows from west to east at 150–250 mph, concentrated at 30,000–40,000 ft — exactly where transatlantic flights cruise. Where the jet stream's fast-moving core meets slower air masses at its edges, intense clear-air turbulence (CAT) forms. CAT is invisible — no clouds, no radar return. The only detection is through reports from aircraft already in the turbulence (PIREPs). In winter, the jet stream strengthens and shifts south, directly over the most trafficked North Atlantic tracks. This is why December–March flights are significantly rougher than summer crossings.

The North Atlantic Organized Track System

Transatlantic flights don't just fly random routes — they use the North Atlantic Track System (NAT), a series of organized routes updated twice daily by NATS (UK) and NAVCANADA. The tracks are designed to minimize flight time using the jet stream for eastbound flights and avoiding it for westbound flights. Despite this optimization, crossing the jet stream is often unavoidable. The most turbulent sections are typically 2–5 hours into westbound flights (flying against the stream) and sometimes 1–3 hours into eastbound flights (entering the jet stream core).

Most Turbulent Routes

Ranked by historical turbulence score — click any route for details

Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Light
Moderate
Light
Moderate
Moderate
Light
Light
Browse all routes →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most turbulent transatlantic route?
Winter transatlantic routes are consistently the most turbulent. Top contenders: (1) London–New York (LHR–JFK) in January–February — direct crossing of the strongest jet stream zone. (2) Frankfurt–Chicago (FRA–ORD) — similar latitude, longer exposure. (3) Paris–Los Angeles (CDG–LAX) — ultra-long route that crosses the full width of the North Atlantic jet stream. Eastbound (US→Europe) routes are slightly calmer on average because they often ride the jet stream rather than crossing it.
How to check North Atlantic turbulence before your flight?
Before your transatlantic flight, check: (1) TurboTrack app — shows historical turbulence scores for your route by month, live PIREPs, and 48-hour forecasts. (2) turbulence-forecast.com — route pages for every transatlantic pair with seasonal charts. (3) NOAA Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov) — free SIGMET maps updated every 15 minutes. (4) Windy.com — shows wind and jet stream position at FL350 altitude. Booking morning flights on westbound routes tends to mean less time in the peak turbulence zone.
Is Atlantic turbulence getting worse?
Yes. Research published in Nature (2023) found North Atlantic clear-air turbulence has increased 55% since 1979, with severe CAT up 188%. Climate change is making the Arctic warm faster than the equator, reducing the temperature gradient that stabilizes the jet stream. A less stable jet stream is more erratic, making turbulence harder to predict and more frequent. The routes most affected: LHR–JFK, CDG–ORD, FRA–LAX, AMS–JFK. The trend is projected to continue through 2050.
What is the calmest time to fly across the Atlantic?
June, July, and August are the calmest months for North Atlantic crossings — the jet stream weakens and shifts far north, away from most flight tracks. Southerly transatlantic routes (e.g., London–Miami, Lisbon–New York, Madrid–Miami) are calmer year-round than the higher-latitude routes. November is the start of the turbulent season — still manageable. December through February is the worst. If you're anxious about turbulence, book a June–August transatlantic flight.
Real-time turbulence in your pocket
Live PIREPs, SIGMETs, AI forecast & best seat guide — free on iOS & Android
Download Free on iOS Get on Android