Passengers are reporting more rough air than ever, and the data backs them up. Turbulence is measurably increasing — here's what's happening, why, and what it means for your flights in 2025.
Yes — the data shows a clear upward trend. A landmark 2023 study in Geophysical Research Letters (Paul Williams, University of Reading) found that severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) over the North Atlantic increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020. A follow-up analysis published in 2024 confirmed the trend is continuing: CAT episodes over major flight corridors are both more frequent and more intense than in previous decades. The mechanism is well understood: climate change is warming the tropics faster than the poles, strengthening the temperature gradient that drives the jet stream. A faster jet stream creates more wind shear — and wind shear is the primary cause of CAT. This isn't a perception effect or reporting bias — it's measured by onboard EDR (eddy dissipation rate) sensors on thousands of commercial aircraft.
The routes showing the largest turbulence increases are: (1) North Atlantic transatlantic routes (JFK–LHR, BOS–LHR, ORD–LHR) — the jet stream here has intensified most dramatically. (2) Pacific routes (LAX–NRT, SFO–ICN, ORD–NRT) — the polar jet over the Pacific is also strengthening. (3) European polar routes (any flight routing north of 60°N) — the polar vortex is more variable, causing sudden jet stream shifts. (4) Mediterranean routes in spring/fall — previously calm but showing more convective activity as sea surface temperatures rise. Andes crossings remain the most turbulent absolute level, but their relative increase is smaller since they were already very high.
Ranked by historical turbulence score — click any route for details