The short answer: yes. Scientific research consistently shows that clear-air turbulence is increasing on major flight routes, and climate change is the primary driver. Here's the evidence.
The mechanism is straightforward: (1) Climate change warms the tropics faster than the Arctic. (2) This increases the temperature gradient between equator and poles. (3) A larger temperature gradient drives a stronger, faster jet stream. (4) A faster jet stream creates more vertical wind shear at its boundaries. (5) Wind shear between fast and slow air masses generates clear-air turbulence (CAT). This isn't theoretical — it's observed in 40+ years of EDR data from commercial aircraft. The 2023 Williams & Joshi study (Geophysical Research Letters) quantified the North Atlantic CAT increase at 55% from 1979–2020. Subsequent studies found similar trends over the Pacific (17% increase in severe CAT over North Pacific, 1979–2020).
Recent years have seen several high-profile turbulence events that reflect the trend: a Singapore Airlines flight in May 2024 experienced extreme clear-air turbulence over the Bay of Bengal, injuring 104 passengers (1 fatality). Analysis confirmed it was an exceptionally intense CAT event in an area that historically was rarely turbulent. PIREP data for 2024 shows moderate-to-severe turbulence reports up approximately 12% compared to the 2010–2015 baseline on North Atlantic routes. The trend is statistically significant and not explained by increased reporting rates.
Ranked by historical turbulence score — click any route for details